Exchange rate forecasting – invitation for a lecture on 30 April

Invitation for a  lecture

30 April from 5 pm in NB473


Exchange rate forecasting is easier than commonly believed

There is a long standing debate in the economics literature on the ability of economic models to forecast exchange rates. The consensus view is that no model can consistently outperform the naive random walk in this out-of-sample competition. During the seminar Michał Rubaszek will discuss why some models perform better or worse in terms of forecast accuracy. He will also present a smart way to beat the random walk in the exchange rate forecasting contest. A selected content of the presentation can accessed from the VOX column as well as from Econbrowser blog.



Michał Rubaszek, assoc. professor at the SHG Warsaw School of Economic